Uncertainty of the claims development result in the chain ladder method
نویسندگان
چکیده
Using the distribution-free chain ladder method, we estimate the total ultimate claim amounts at time I, and after updating the information, at time I 1. The observable claims development result at time I 1 for accounting year (I, I 1] is then defined to be the difference between these two successive best estimate predictions for the ultimate claim. We analyze the uncertainty of this observable claims development result.
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تاریخ انتشار 2006